Absolute Piffle

General commentary and new links from Richard Gillmann. Sometimes it's funny, sometimes it's serious, and sometimes it's just there.

Sunday, June 04, 2000

Today's Seattle Times pointed me to the ePredict.com investing page. It's free, you sign up (via an obnoxious questionnaire that asks stuff like how much money you have in stocks), you are given a few stock names and asked for your opinion on their prospects. Then you are allowed to see what others think to get a consensus opinion. If I'm understanding this correctly, they claim the consensus opinion beats the market. Hmmmm - this is exactly the opposite of the contrary opinion theory. I guess there is something for everybody in stock picking.

I checked out their past reports on MSFT. It's been a "strong buy" or "buy" all the way down from a high of 119 to the mid-60s where it is now. Maybe there is something to all this, but I don't think so. Going with the consensus pick reminds me of the racing form. It doesn't do well with the ponies and I doubt it would with the stock market. They quote good performance figures, but who has checked these?

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