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January 15, 2002 It was April 2, 2001 when I last listed the top tech stocks as rated by Buffettology. The NASDAQ index was at 1825.94 then; it's 2000.91 now, a 9.5% rise. Here is a tabulation of how the stocks I listed then have done. Stock 2001 Est. 2002 Ticker Price 5yr RR Price Comments CHKP $46.88 36.6% $38.68 TSG $46.01 26.1% $38.42 TLAB $39.19 24.3% $16.34 ADBE $34.00 24.2% $36.27 IBM $94.66 24.2% $118.85 (top five as a group down 5%) DELL $24.06 23.4% $28.58 ADSK $16.13 22.3% $39.95 CIEN $42.44 21.3% $14.11 PMTC $9.19 21.0% $7.67 AOL $37.17 21.0% $30.03 CDN $17.98 20.4% $21.50 EMC $29.31 19.6% $15.98 RLRN $30.25 18.6% $27.25 Ticker changed from ALSI AMGN $57.00 17.4% $56.26 QLGC $20.50 17.4% $53.03 FDC $59.79 16.5% $80.00 CTXS $19.69 16.4% $22.29 GTW $15.96 16.2% $6.90 CPWR $9.91 14.7% $13.40 SBC $43.76 13.6% $37.79 JPM $44.60 13.2% $37.87 QCOM $51.50 13.1% $46.55 HWP $28.92 13.0% $23.08 CA $27.28 12.8% $36.90 TECH $25.50 12.8% $35.07 (bottom five as a group up 15%) CRY $26.21 12.4% $27.19 WMT $50.64 12.0% $56.87 STT $45.97 11.4% $55.44 Split 2:1 MSFT $55.81 11.3% $69.55 VRTY $21.06 11.1% $20.19 Results were even this time: 15 up and 15 down. If you'd bought a 100 shares of each, you'd be up about 3%. The bottom five did better than the top five. All in all, not a very impressive performance for Buffettology. I'm kind of losing faith in it. It does seem to do better with blue chips. Here is my new list of the top stocks for the coming year, by my Buffettology calculations. I'm cutting back to the top ten. Ticker Price EPS1 EPS2 Div Book Fut Pri Divs Aft tax 5yr RR ADRX $63.18 $1.22 $2.97 $9.17 $235.14 $137.57 26.0% ORCL $16.99 $0.45 $0.51 $1.04 $56.55 $31.64 23.4% DELL $28.58 $0.65 $0.74 $1.83 $79.03 $40.36 19.3% PMTC $7.67 $0.27 $0.43 $1.53 $21.08 $10.73 19.1% CHKP $38.68 $1.23 $1.29 $3.44 $101.94 $50.61 18.2% PFE $40.41 $1.31 $1.59 $0.52 $3.01 $101.99 $5.25 $52.47 18.1% MRK $58.65 $3.13 $3.40 $1.40 $6.75 $142.81 $12.21 $74.78 17.9% IBM $118.85 $4.36 $4.81 $0.56 $12.76 $299.12 $5.33 $147.47 17.5% CA $36.90 $2.38 $2.51 $0.08 $8.96 $92.05 $0.67 $44.53 17.2% CDN $21.50 $0.82 $1.09 $3.94 $53.35 $25.48 16.9% I've been waiting for a chance to buy some Oracle and Sun at reasonable prices. Looks like a good time to buy Oracle, anyway. © Copyright 2002 by Richard Gillmann. All Rights Reserved. |